The country's weatherman is predicting above-normal rainfall, which might cause flooding, while other parts are likely to have a deficit rainfall in the next three months.

According to the National consensus climate outlook for the March-May 2021 season, Kigali city, eastern province and few parts of Southern Province in Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru districts Provinces are expected to experience slightly above normal rainfall.

The expected rainfall will range between 350 and 450 millimetres. Most rainfall is expected in Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru. The predicted amount of rainfall will range between 550 and 600 millimetres. “The key factors expected to influence the rainfall during the March-May 2021 seasonal forecast include normal conditions in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, which are expected to remain neutral during the season,” said Aimable Gahigi, the director-general of Rwanda Meteorological Agency (Meteo Rwanda).

“Rainfall, which could slightly increase or decrease during the March to May 2021 rainfall season may lead to hydrometeorological-related phenomena such as floods, dry spells, strong winds, landslides, rainstorms, hailstorms, thunderstorms and water-borne diseases among others,” Mr Gahigi added.

Meteo Rwanda is now urging all institutions to prepare and put in place mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact on lives, property and infrastructure.

However, the districts of Musanze, Burera, Gakenke, northern parts of Rulindo and Gicumbi in Northern Province; Muhanga and Huye, western parts of Gisagara, Nyanza, Ruhango and most parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru districts in Southern Province; most parts of Nyabihu and Nyamasheke districts, northern Rubavu and western Rusizi in Western Province are expected to have rainfall ranging between 450 and 550 millimetres.

Meteo Rwanda predicts below normal rainfall in the regions near Lake Kivu in Western Province in Ngororero, Karongi, Rutsiro and Rubavu districts.

According to official data by the Ministry of Emergency, over 14,000 households are still without shelter as the previous rain-related disasters washed away their homes.

According to the ministry, 290 people lost their lives and 398 were injured while 95 classrooms, four health centres, 151 roads, 102 bridges, 22 churches, 26 water supply systems, 96 electricity transmission lines, 16 administrative offices, six markets and one factory were damaged by the heavy rain throughout last year.

The data shows that 3,491 livestock died, over 6,000 hectares of crops and 458 hectares of forests were damaged by rain-related disasters.

The Ministry of Agriculture cautioned farmers against the possible flooding, which could be more devastating throughout the season.

“We urge our farmers to strategise and prepare for the possible flooding or other devastations,” said Charles Bucagu, the deputy director-general of agriculture research and technology transfer.

Meteo Rwanda notes that the start of the rainfall onset is expected towards the end of February.