By CHRISTOPHER KAYUMBA

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For some time now, debate has been raging about the meaning of the growing Chinese investment in Africa and its seeming competition with the West.

So far, three main storylines and a myth have emerged. The first contend that China’s interest and investment is good for the continent and even better than that from the west and should be welcomed.

Promoters of this view give primacy to “development” over democracy. Believers in this story include many of Africa’s leaders.

The second view is that China’s overtures constitute a danger to democracy and human rights and should be taken with caution. Sponsors of this view include democracy and human rights activists.

The third is that there is an ongoing “second scramble” for Africa and “new colonisation” is afoot.

Are China’s interests in Africa really different from those of the West? Is recolonising Africa possible?

Profit motive

The short answer to the first question is no! At the core, both China and the West are driven by their national interests and their investments informed by the profit motive; where they differ are the strategies used to pursue those interests.

And, the answer to the second question is yes, unless Africa is alert to the danger, re-colonisation is possible! This time however, it won’t be through physical occupation; it will be of a new type: Debt, indebtedness and gun-diplomacy!

For as Emmanuel Kant warned in his essay, Perpetual Peace, it’s possible for a country to “own” another through debt! I give five factors to illustrate why this contest isn’t about love for Africa but the self-interest of the competitors:

First, evidence shows that big direct investments from China and the West are going into similar big money sectors and both are equally attracted to mineral and oil-rich countries.

For example, a study by the Brooking Institute covering 49 countries in Africa states that: “Both [China and the West] are attracted to larger markets and…natural resource-rich countries.”

Secondly, investment and loans follow each’s belief system. For example, the Chinese overseas direct investment care less about rule of law and more about “political stability” while “Western investment is concentrated in countries with better property rights and rule of law.”

Where China favours state-driven development and the West market driven.

Thirdly, while China, like the West, is giving aid and loans, conditions for accessing them demonstrate directly opposed strategies: China’s is given in honour of “historical friendship” and “sincere” co-operation while the West’s is tied to political conditions and adopting liberal policies.

That doesn’t mean China isn’t interested in Africa adopting its ways! That China also offers aid in the form of education, and culture is testimony to its intentions!

Fourth, while the West nearly crippled Africa with the debt burden in 1980s, these were largely owed to the World Bank and IMF but Africa’s debt, which has been rising from 37 per cent in 2012 to 56 per cent in 2016 is owed to private investors, including China!

Due to corruption, with China giving loans to mineral rich countries like Angola, DRC, etc secured through mineral and oil concessions as collateral, this arrangement is more likely to benefit a few elite and make it impossible for such countries to repay loans.

As some of my Baganda friends would say, Africa should be weary of those who seek to “Okulila mu kavuyo” (eating or benefiting from chaos)!

External force

Finally, to protect their spheres of investment, each is also assembling its militaries on the continent.

In fact, as President Xi Jinping was visiting Africa recently, African Union military chiefs were on July 26 attending the East African Standby Force (EASF) in Kigali and warning of the dangers of foreign military bases on the continent.

As the media reported, Maj-Gen Trust Mugoba, who is the chief of staff of the EASF, “The establishment of foreign bases within the region and the involvement of the external forces in the conflicts in the Horn of Africa is a worrisome development.”

Western countries like France and the US have military bases on the continent. The latter in countries like Chad, Gabon, Cameron, Ivory Coast, Niger and Djibouti. China, like the US has one in Djibouti.

For those who take the long analytical view then and considering what’s happening elsewhere in the world, the ongoing contest for the soul of Africa isn’t really about Africa! It’s about two competing worldviews vying for supremacy.

Christopher Kayumba, PhD. Senior Lecturer, School of Journalism and Communication, UR; Lead consultant, MGC Consult International Ltd. E-mail: [email protected]; Twitter account: @Ckayumba Website:www.mgcconsult.com